ENTSOG GRIP SNC 2014-2023

4.2 The impact of renewables on gas demand in the countries of the South- North Corridor

According to Directive 2009/28/EC, the renewable sources are destined to cover 20% of total final gross energy consumption in the whole EU by 2020. Each Member State must achieve at least an agreed rate of energy production from renewable sources, as shown in table 4.1 (target set by the Directive compared to situation related to 2005). SOUTH-NORTH CORRIDOR COUNTRY TARGETS FOR THE SHARE OF ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES Country Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy, 2005 (S 2005 ) Target for share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy, 2020 (S 2020 )

2.20%

13%

Belgium

France

10.30%

23%

Germany

5.80%

18%

Italy

5.20%

17%

Table 4.1: South-North Corridor country targets for the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy in 2020 (source: Directive 2009/28/EC)

A reasonable assumption is that most of the renewable technologies will appear in the power generation sector: if this might reduce the growth of gas demand for power generation in terms of possible impacts on the overall gas demand, the same is not true for peak gas demand requirements, due to the inherent intermittent nature of RES. This conclusion is confirmed by Figure 4.3 where expected peak gas demand for power generation is foreseen to stay stable and then again increase along the considered time horizon.

GWh/d

2000

1600

1200

800

400

0

2013 2022 Figure 4.3: Forecasted evolution of peak gas demand for Power Generation in the Region (Source: TSOs/ENTSOG collected data) 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023

Indeed, sustainable and reliable growth of green electricity sources is heavily dependent on the back-up solutions put in place to substitute the renewable electricity streams when the wind is not blowing, the sun is not shining, while the possible contribution of other RES is by nature limited.

South-North Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

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