ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

5.2 Disruption via Ukraine

During the winter period 2014/2015 when the Ukraine disruption is applied a problem was identified in Bulgaria and Romania. In winter period 2018/2019 was detected problem in Croatia due to expected decrease in national production for the next years. And no CEE country has any trouble to cover the domestic demand during the Ukraine disruption in the last analysed winter period 2022/2023. It is mainly due to the implementation of all new planned investment projects. The results for the countries of the CEE GRIP region are presented in the following table.

COUNTRY

N-1 WINTER FORMULA 1.10.2014 – 31.3.2015 1.10.2018 – 31.3.2019 1.10.2022 – 31.3.2023

Austria

2,6327

2,7364

3,0200

Bulgaria

0,4840

1,8684

1,7430

Croatia

1,0000

0,9748

1,2361

Czech Republic

2,7786

2,5512

2,6887

Hungary

1,0494

1,0138

1,0363

Poland

1,2243

1,0452

1,3175

Romania

0,8414

1,0000

1,0084

Slovakia

2,9404

2,8304

3,1222

Slovenia

2,3850

1,5922

1,3811

Table 13: Results of regional N-1 formula in the winter period in case of the disruption via Ukraine

The analysis for the summer 2014 period resulted in the identification of possible problem in Bulgaria, as Bulgaria is not able to inject into UGS facilities during the Ukraine disruption. But this problem will be solved by commissioning of planned projects in the next years. Potential problems to inject into UGS facilities were also identified in Hungary and Romania, but only if the disruption lasts more than 76 and 116 days respectively. In summer period 2018 the potential problems to inject into UGS facilities were detected in Hungary, Poland and Croatia, but only if the disruption lasts longer than 94, 96 and 155 days. During the last summer period 2023 there was a potential problem to inject into UGS facilities just in Hungary. This potential problem will appear only if the Ukraine disruption takes longer than 106 days. Most of identified problems can be solved by implementing new planned investment projects. Potential problems with filling of UGS facilities in Hungary are caused by the fact that Hungary is a transit country and during the disruption is helping neighbouring countries which do not have enough gas for satisfying their domestic demand. Mainly Romania is dependent on supply of gas through Hungary if the Ukraine route is disrupted. The problem can be solved by increasing storage capacity in Hungary and/or Romania. However the some potentials problems were identified it is highly unlikely that the supply disruption via Ukraine would take so long.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023