ENTSOG GRIP BEMIP 2014-2023 / Main Report

ENERGY MIX

The structure of energy consumption in Poland is closely linked to significant resources of raw materials (mostly coal and lignite, to a much lesser extent natural gas) that are located in Poland. Total energy consumption in Poland amounted to 102.2Mtoe in 2011. The Polish energy mix is dominated by solid fuels that ac­ counted for 53.4% of total energy consumption. The second largest source of primary energy is petroleum with its share in energy mix totalled to 25.9%. Natural gas is the third major source of primary energy in Poland and accounted for 12.5% in total energy consumption (below the average for all EU member states – 17.4%). Its share in energy mix has remained constant since the release of the BEMIP GRIP in March 2012.

SUPPLY / DEMAND

National demand

Country: Poland Normal conditions: 0°C Gross calorific value: 11.03 kWh /m³

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Peak demand mcm / day

73.8 77.4 81.2 90.9 101.3 110.9 112.5 114.2 115.6 116.9

GWh / day

815 855 897 1004 1118 1224 1242 1261 1276 1291

Yearly demand bcm / year

16.0 16.7 18.3 20.7 23.6 24.8 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4

TWh / year

177.1 184.4 203 229.4 261.4 274.4 277.0 278.9 280.1 281.3

Table 2.8: Forecasts for national demand, Poland

The demand for gas transmission services has increased since 2005 and it reached the level of 169TWh in 2013. The growth was mostly observed among industrial and residential customers. In the years to come, the demand increase and a change in the structure of main customers are expected in case of growing role of natural gas in the electricity production due to environmental reasons and the need to replace ageing power generation units. Natural gas supplies in Poland amounted to 171.9 TWh in 2012. Approximately 74% of gas injected into the transmission system was imported, while remaining 26% came from domestic production. As far as import is concerned, the largest quantities of gas were transported from eastern direction (119.5 TWh, including 10.4TWh via the virtual reverse flow on the Yamal pipeline), Germany (11.9TWh) and the Czech Republic (6.3 TWh). In 2012, indigenous production reached 46.7 TWh. The main three areas, where natural gas is extracted, include the Carpathian and Greater Poland regions. Natural gas production in Poland may increase due to unconventional gas. Pre­ liminary analyses suggest that Poland might have large gas deposits. Poland’s Ministry of Environment has already granted more than 100 licenses for exploration of unconventional gas. Perspectives for unconventional gas deposits have been assessed by relevant companies. The most promising deposits are believed to be located in the Pomerania region.

Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023 | 35