ENTSOG Annual Report 2014

SUPPORT FOR GAS COORDINATION GROUP AND STRESS TEST

The Gas Coordination Group (GCG) is a platform estab- lished by Regulation (EU) 944/2010 that introduces meas- ures of safeguarding the security of gas supply. By request from the European Commission, ENTSOG carried out a top- down assessment of stress test scenarios in order to com- plement member state analyses. The role of the Gas Coordination Group (GCG) is to exchange information and best practices, and to facilitate Security of Supply (SoS) standards. Members include the European Commission, representatives of EU member states, ENTSOG and other international organisations, as well as industry. ENTSOG is responsible for coordinating TSO expertise with respect to assessing the interconnected gas infrastructure, especially through modelling analyses. As a part of its regular contributions, ENTSOG published Summer Supply Outlook 2014 and Winter Supply Outlook 2014/15.

The Ukraine crisis has been the core focus of the GCG. In spring 2014, ENTSOG carried out its first simulation based on scenarios defined by European Commission. The results were presented to the Madrid Forum in May and confirmed the strong reliance of the Baltic, Central-Eastern and South-East- ern European regions on receiving Russian gas. It also dem- onstrated the benefits of large-scale underground gas storage to mitigate potential disruptions in supply. This study was developed and updated late summer on the basis of member stress tests. The results were taken into consideration in the European Commission report submitted to the Council in October 2014.

Share of disr in February

6-month RU disruption Optimal crisis management

CRISIS MANAGEMENT BY MARKET & INSTITUTIONS

< 10 10% – 20% – 60% – 80%

Definition of 2 modelling approaches (e. g. 6-month RU disruption)

\\ Optimal crisis management –– Price-responsive market functioning –– Perfect cooperation between Member States > Disruption spread among a maximum of countries in order to reduce relative impact \\ Sub-optimal crisis management –– Price-responsive market functioning –– Member States export gas only if own demand completely satisfied > Disruption focused on limited number of countries but with higher relative impact

6-month RU disruption Sub-optimal crisis management

Share of disrupted demand in February

RU disruption risis management

< 10% 10% – 20% 20% – 60% 60% – 80% 80% – 100%

ENTSOG Annual Report 2014 |

31