ENTSOG Annual Report 2014

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Gas, when burnt to heat homes or for industrial uses, releases 25–30% less CO 2 than oil per unit of energy produced.

SUMMER/WINTER SUPPLY OUTLOOKS AND REVIEWS

Supply Outlooks assess the season-ahead flexibility of the gas supply infrastructure under consideration of previous supply and demand trends. Summer Supply Outlook explores the extent to which the market could reach high storage levels at the end of the sea- son based on the actual storage level on 1 April of that year. The report has benefited from new modelling techniques with an optimised temporal approach that were developed for the purpose of the cost-benefit analyses (CBA). The robustness of the report is ensured by using the following sensitivity anal- yses: \\ Various supply situations \\ Different targeted stock levels at summer’s end Summer Supply Outlook 2014 identified sufficient flexibility in all parts of Europe. Incidentally, the storage levels reached on 1 October 2014 were the highest ever in recent history. Winter Supply Outlook explores both the evolution of under- ground storage inventory throughout the winter and the demand-supply balance in situations of high daily demand. The aforementioned improved modelling approach has ena- bled a more consistent analysis of the influence of storage levels on UGS deliverability during periods of high daily demand. The robustness of the report is ensured by using the following sensitivity analyses: \\ Various climatic profiles of winter \\ Potential disruption of transit through Ukraine

Winter Supply Outlook 2014/15 confirmed the robustness of the gas infrastructure in most parts of Europe when facing short disruptions under severe climatic conditions. If South- Eastern Europe remains strongly dependent on the Ukrainian transit route, recently commissioned infrastructures will im- prove the situation compared to previous winters. These infra- structures now allow significant volumes of gas to be export- ed to Ukraine.

It is of note that the high storage levels achieved at the end of the summer were maintained until the beginning of winter.

The publication of Seasonal Reviews is an ENTSOG initiative based on internal supply/demand analyses carried out within the framework of TYNDP and Supply Outlooks. ENTSOG chose to publish these analyses and thus share the results with stakeholders so that feedback could be gathered. This initiative will help to establish a robust basis when defining the input data and methodology of subsequent reports. After hav- ing focused on the supply/demand balance, the reviews now go further in the understanding of the role of gas demand for power generation and give a view of flow patterns between the European balancing zones. Reviews of summer 2013 and winter 2013/14 confirmed that the surge in coal power limited the role of natural gas in this sector. This had a negative impact on European CO ² emis- sions and also eroded the confidence of institutions and industry on the medium to long-term future of gas.

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ENTSOG Annual Report 2014