Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2017

3.7.4 MARKET INDICATORS, SUPPLY AND DEMAND The Swedish gas market is mainly based on imports from Denmark. An increasing volume of biogas each year is the other input volume in the gas system (Ten biogas facilities are connected to the transmission or distribution grids). There are two LNG terminals in Sweden but they are not connected to the transmission grid. The volume of natural gas distributed in Sweden has been quite stable during the last years. It is hard to predict how the volume of natural gas will change in the future. Much depends on the future of the three nuclear plants in Sweden, which has been much debated in recent years. The gas market, connected to the transmission grid, has approximately 37,000 customers of which households amount to 33,400. Half of the households use natural gas for heating and cooking while the rest use it for cooking only. However, these customers use only 2% of the total amount of the consumed gas. The remain- ing customers consist of CHP units, district heating units and larger industries. The 60 largest customers use approximately 80% of the total volume. An LNG terminal is planned to be built in Gothenburg and would then be connect- ed to the transmission grid. By this new source of gas the system would be less vulnerable.

YEARLY GAS DEMAND AND PEAK-DAY DEMAND FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 2017–2025

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

YEARLY GAS DEMAND [GWh/year] PEAK-DAY DEMAND [GWh/day] YEARLY GAS DEMAND [GWh/year] PEAK-DAY DEMAND [GWh/day]

10,944 11,822 12,699 13,577 13,659 13,741 13,823 13,905 13,987

BLUE SCENARIO

91.0 92.0 93.5 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 96.0

10,944 11,254 11,563 11,873 12,019 12,165 12,311 12,457 12,603

GREEN SCENARIO

91.0 92.0 93.5 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 96.0

Table 3.4: Yearly gas demand and peak day demand forecast for the period of 2017–2025

3.7.5 LEGAL FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT

The Swedish gas market is regulated by the Natural Gas Act from 2005. Energi­ marknadsinspektionen (Ei) is the acting regulator (NRA) who ensures that actors on the gas market comply with the Natural Gas Act. The Third Energy Package was fully implemented in 2012. The market model for the natural gas market was finalised in 2007 and is based on the electricity market model. The Danish market is used by the gas actors to book capacities. Hence, no capacity trading between shippers and the TSO exists in Sweden. Swedegas is together with the market working on implementation of EU legislation and specifically the network codes. The balancing network code has been imple- mented with an interim solution and more network codes will be implemented the upcoming years. Swedegas and Energinet.dk (Danish TSO) are investigating if a joint balancing zone can have net positive effects on the development of the Swedish and Danish gas markets. A project will be launched to analyse the expected cost and benefits and recommend a decision (go/no go) to the respective decision bodies of Swedegas and Energinet.dk in 2017.

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BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017