Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2017

As seen from the figure below today more than half of the natural gas consumed in Estonia is used in the energy sector (mainly for district heating purposes). Other larger users of the natural gas are the industry, households, businesses and public service sector.

0 1,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 5,000 7,000 6,000 8,000 GWh/ year

2013

2014

2015

2010

2011

2012

Energy sector’s own use Business and public services sector Gas demand for heat production

Gas demand for electricity production Households

Industry

Agriculture and fisheries

Transportation sector

Figure 3.14: Historical natural gas consumption by market sectors during the period 2010–2015 (Source: Statistics Estonia)

For the next ten years, it is foreseen that the gas demand will more or less stabilise at the current level. A slight decrease is expected from the fuel switch in the district heating sector, which in turn is compensated slightly by the expected gas demand increase in the transportation sector. The total forecasted demand and the forecasted peak-day demand for the different ENTSOG TYNDP scenarios are provided in table 3.1 below.

YEARLY GAS DEMAND AND PEAK-DAY DEMAND FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 2017–2025

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

YEARLY GAS DEMAND [GWh/year]

5,660 5,730 5,801 5,873 5,936 5,915 5,895 5,877 5,860

BLUE SCENARIO

PEAK-DAY DEMAND [GWh/day]

52.8 52.8 52.9 52.9 53.0 53.0 53.1 53.1 53.2

YEARLY GAS DEMAND [GWh/year]

5,157 4,992 4,838 4,695 4,554 4,363 4,181 4,008 3,843

GREEN SCENARIO

PEAK-DAY DEMAND [GWh/day]

50.3 48.1 45.9 43.8 41.9 40.0 38.2 36.5 34.8

Table 3.1: Yearly gas demand and peak-day demand forecast for the period of 2017–2025 (Source: Elering)

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BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017