Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2017

3.2.4 MARKET INDICATORS, SUPPLY AND DEMAND Natural gas to Estonia is supplied from Russia and/or through Latvia from Lithuania. In 2014, all of the natural gas was imported from Russia. In 2015, after the comple- tion of Klaipėda LNG terminal, 20.3% of imported natural gas was imported from Lithuania.

TWh/y

GWh/d

Growth of NGVs in the CEE region

0 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Consumption TWh/year

Peak day demand GWh/d

Figure 3.13: Historical natural gas consumption and peak day demand in Estonia during 2010–2016 (Source: Elering)

Natural gas consumption in Estonia has been in a declining trend. Over the last ten years natural gas consumption has decreased by more than half (Figure 3.13). There are many factors behind the decline in Estonia: \\ Decreased consumption by industrial users. A number of major natural gas users have stopped using natural gas or stopped their production operations. \\ Decreased use in heat production. There is a trend in district heating to switch from natural gas to renewable energy sources. \\ Increased energy efficiency. Due to increased energy efficiency, both house- holds and industrial users require less energy. \\ Natural gas is considered as a politically problematic energy carrier due to sin- gle supply source. Peak-day gas demand has been significantly lower during the last few years as well, which is more connected to the warmer winters in the last few years. This is further confirmed by the colder 2016 January month, when gas demand reached 52.7GWh/d.

BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017 |

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