Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2017

3.1.4.1 Supply and demand

Currently, the Danish gas-market is well supplied with gas from the North Sea and import of gas from Germany. Even biogas is now being supplied directly into the Danish gas transmission system. Historically, most of the biogas has entered the system at distribution level and consumed locally. In the coming years, the balance is expected to become tighter. Figure 3.5 shows the forecast of the Danish gas production until 2037. It follows that the decline will continue in the years ahead. In April 2016 Maersk Oil, the co-owner of the largest production platform (Tyra) in the Danish part of the North Sea, has (on behalf of the consortium DUC) announced that it was considering closing down Tyra. This would cut off by far the majority of the gas which currently is retrieved from the Danish part of the North Sea and further reduce the supply in comparison to the forecast in figure 3.5. However, recently (start of 2017) it has been decided that Tyra will only be temporarily closed (2018–20) due to technical restructuring of the platform. The production will be resumed by 2021.

TWh/y

Groningen production, realised and future, TWh

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2017

2016

2019

2018

2031

2021

2024

2027

2025

2037

2026

2028

2032

2020

2023

2029

2035

2036

2030

2022

2033

2034

Danish production of NG

Figure 3.5: Forecast of future Danish gas production from the North Sea

The Danish gas system was originally designed to have one primary source, the North Sea. Since then, pipelines to Germany have been expanded, so that currently there are two large supply routes. When production in the North Sea declines, the Danish gas system will gradually return to a situation with one primary source of supply. For there to be supply problems, it will take an extremely hard and long winter, the likes of which has never been seen in the life of the Danish gas system. However, as supply is eventually reduced to a single large source (Germany), the system will be more vulnerable.

BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017 |

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