Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2017

similar results. Also, in the case of gas supply disruption through Belarus, which has a lesser effect on Latvia than Russian disruptions, implementation of the regional PCIs significantly increases remaining flexibility. The obvious conclusion is therefore that implementation of regional PCIs is essential to increasing security of supply. Another measure of security of supply is the disrupted rate, which refers to the share of unsupplied demand. The results of calculating the disruption rate for Latvia follows the same pattern as the remaining flexibility. Currently Latvia would experience a lack of gas in cases of Russian gas supply disruptions on peak demand days, but no shortage of gas in cases of Belarus disruptions. In order to meet gas demands in cases of Russian gas supply disruptions, regional PCIs shall be implemented. The modelling method of BEMIP GRIP 2017 does not allow the impact of different regional projects on security of supply to be compared, but it shows that the construction of new and enhancing interconnections alone is not sufficient to providing the necessary security of supply for the BEMIP region.

6.5 Lithuania

Remaining Flexibility Under the Belarus supply disruption scenario, Lithuania will experience a remaining flexibility of nearly 20% for the design case and 40% for 2-week demand in a short-term. If supply limitations from Russia to the Baltic States and Finland are considered, the remaining flexibility remains close to zero over the short term, i. e., Lithuania will hardly be able to fulfil its additional demand. The modelling results indicate that the negative impact of disruption will be miti­ gated if PCIs projects in Lithuania are commissioned. Consequently, the remaining flexibility will increase for all infrastructure scenarios analysed in Lithuania. From 2025 on, the Klaipėda LNG Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) is no longer considered in the modelling of the Low infrastructure level. This is due to the fact the FSRU leasing agreement will expire by then, and that the operator has not made a decision on whether to purchase the FSRU (the continued operation of Klaipėda LNG terminal is considered for the High infrastructure level). It will result in a decrease of the remaining flexibility to almost zero for all disruption cases under infrastructure scenarios modelled for 2025 (i.e., continued operation of Klaipėda LNG terminal is considered for the High infrastructure level not taken into account as a separate modelling case). Lithuania will not be able to fulfil its additional de- mand even the GIPL pipeline is in operation. Disrupted Rate In Lithuania, the disrupted rate indicator is mainly relevant when the “No RU supply to the Baltic States” and “No RU supply to the Baltic States and Finland” supply limitations are considered. In the short-term, the disruption rate is under 6% for design case demands through different scenarios considered. According to the modelling results, completion of PCI projects in Lithuania will remove the supply limitation, which will result in a decrease of disrupted rate indicator to zero starting from 2020. Due to the fact that the Klaipėda LNG is not available from 2025 (if the Low infra- structure level is considered), the disrupted rate indicator increases up to nearly 20% if the design case demand is analysed.

108 |

BEMIP Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017